Well, we had yet another amazing year. No one can say the ProAV market is trite!

It's December again and time for my yearly round up-and coming year prediction column. As in past years, I will start this year's "crystal ball" article with a review of my predictions from last year's issue. Like I said last year, I remember as a kid watching TV and seeing the newsstands full of the coming year's predictions with expert professional prediction folk. But, I don't recall ever seeing or hearing a review of how they fared on their predictions from the previous year. So, in my case, I will start my Millennium predictions with a review of what I predicted in the December 1999 issue of Sound and Communications. Then, I will turn to making some year 2001 predictions.

A review of 2000

In last year's article I began by predicting that the ultra-portable category of projectors will break the 1000 ANSI lumens barrier (in 1999, if you will recall, the brightest ultra-portables were less than 700 ANSI lumens) and predicting that the fixed install projector category will break the 4000 ANSI lumens bar. Well, to be honest with you, this was one I couldn't have missed. Not only was I privy to a number of manufacturers pre-release information and roadmaps for 2000, but also with light outputs jumping over 150% per year, how could I go wrong. And, as you know, we did break both of those barriers.

But, is that really a big deal? Well, yes and no. It's a huge deal if you're a traveling presenter/road warrior or a training manager that makes presentations in rooms with fluorescent lights, windows to the world, or in environments where ambient lighting is a must. But most of us still project light in the dark or near dark, so in reality, we may not need all that extra light. However, what we are seeing is a major increase in contrast ratios (difference between dark and light image information). The higher the contrast ratio (the greater that difference) the better the image looks to everyone. So, more power to the lamp! In fact, where projectors were hovering around 100:1 and 200:1 contrast ratios in 1999, the average in 2000 was 320:1. But, watch for 2001 to bring us averages in the range of 500 and 600:1. Awesome!

Next, I predicted that the line between install- projectors and portable projectors would not only blur but also disappear. More people would be hanging projectors once called portable. Well, it's happening. Sony's PX30, InFocus' 775, and Epson's 5000 and 7000 series, projectors weighing between 10- and 16-pounds, used to be considered portable-sized projectors but are now being installed on a regular basis in small boardrooms, conference rooms, and training rooms. Not only will this trend continue, but you will see a load of portable projectors being introduced in 2001 that weigh less than 10-pounds, will include install features like keystone correction, RS232 control, gamma correction, gain and bias controls, interchangeable lenses, and even include network integration - the integration connection trend of the future.

After making the projector trend predictions, I turned my attention to VTC - videoconferencing. I predicted that 2000 would mark the ProAV adoption of the IP-based conferencing application as well as prices dropping for VTC boxes below the $5000 mark. Well, not only is IP-based videoconferencing the real-deal, but a plethora of VTC manufacturers are adding both IP and ISDN connectivity to all their products. Once a separate category of conferencing, the acceleration of DSL availability will soon (2001) bring DSL-based VTC into the mainstream. Currently, it's being done on the low-end with boxes from PictureTel and Polycom that retail for less that $1000 but don't integrate into a typical ProAV system real well. The next generation of DSL and IP boxes will include complete integration control as well as help shift the cost down a notch to something in the range of $2500 or less. In addition, as I predicted, long-distance phone rates fell below 7 cents a minute and will easily go below 3-cents a minute by the end of 2001. That will mean that the average VTC call using ISDN will fall below 18 cents a minute!

After VTC, I turned to distribution issues. I predicted two huge mergers that would change the face of the industry. Well, I was more than right on this one. The huge mergers were even huger (is 'huger' a term? - oh well, you get the point) than anyone thought. InFocus and Proxima merged, bringing us less than 12-months away from a $1 billion projector manufacturer (now at $800 million), and MCSi bought a host of large dealers. In the years leading up to 2000, MCSi was being discussed as a potential mega-dealer, but now the term mega-dealer is totally used to describe MCSi. MCSi is over $1 billion, and the next closest dealer is about $100 million. But, to dispel the myth, they don't have a market share as big as everyone "thinks." They are huge, but they buy less than 10% of the projectors manufactured, less than 9% of the control systems sold, and less than 12% of the interfacing, switching, and distribution gear made-- so they are far from having a market share like Microsoft, AT&T, or InFocus for that matter.

On to the Internet prediction. Despite popular belief, the Internet has NOT made a significant impact on the ProAV business model. Sure, if you're a box-house, then you've been impacted by the Internet, but if you are a box-house and don't have an Internet strategy yet, you deserve it. The Internet will continue to effect margins and pricing as well as availability, but it will not affect system integrators and design/build firms. They are thriving (the well run ones are, at least) and they are coming off their best year ever (profit-wise and growth-wise). So, don't be afraid of the Internet unless you are in the habit now of quoting prices to a client before you learn his or her application. If you know what I mean by that, your job and company are very secure.

So, what about HDTV? Last year, I predicted that the FCC would stay on course and not modify their 2006 deadline. Well, that has proven to be correct. Right now, over 160 local stations around the USA are broadcast simultaneously broadcasting NTSC and HDTV. There's barely any programming (prime-time shows like "Everybody Loves Raymond," "Jay Leno" and local newscasts), but that will change in 2001. The SuperBowl will again be in HDTV, and now even RadioShack has an HDTV display and TV under $2500. That will help a bunch! Sure, in low, low, low-end, but it will help. So, make sure you are starting to specify dual-aspect ratio screens (ones that will morph from 4:3 to 16:9). Oh, and you might want to look carefully at RadioShack's stock (that is NOT a stock tip - just a comment).

Here are the summary predictions I made at the end of last year's column:


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