Scenario 3: The portable, conference room and fixed installation markets continue to operate as three separate channels and applications for the customer.

Is anyone really dissatisfied with the way the market is progressing right now? OK, there may be a few out there, but the fact is, this market is booming. We are enjoying growth faster than many segments of the PC industry have enjoyed in years. Some people say 20%, some even predict 60% growth next year, but no one is predicting a slide at all.

We all recognize the average corporation has barely discovered this market. Yet, thousands of companies today are either installing or budgeting to install projection technology to help them communicate in their conference rooms and training rooms in the future.

So, why is a change needed? Maybe we will stay the course and see it through with the market segments we have now serving the customer. We have the portable market, the largest segment of the projector market, sustaining growth of 20 - 30% a year. We have the conference room segment of the market that's holding steady with growth projected to be in the 10-20%. We have the fixed-install segment of the market where we are installing projectors in the ceilings of America's boardrooms, conference rooms, training rooms and even churches (the fastest growing segment of the year 2000) at a growth rate projected to be above 50% next year. And, we have a new segment emerging - the home theater. Historically served by the CRT, in the home theater market a few manufacturers are leading the way with Faroudja-enhanced processing the 16:9 (HDTV-style) imaging with LCD projectors. No one will predict that growth, but everyone expects it to be in the 15-30% range next year.

So, why fix something that isn't broken? Well, there's a good chance it wont be. Each channel is represented by a host of sales, service and installation experts and everyone is enjoying the fruits of this growth. No one is predicting the demise of any one channel in the very near future and the system works.

PCs are sold over the Internet, through 1-800 sales companies, through distributors, through dealers and even through network integration and consulting companies and they all are profitable (most of the time). In fact, the same PC through the Internet and through a network integration company may yield a price difference of up to $500, but the system works. That extra $500 is insurance for the buyer that he will have service available when he needs it and it usually includes installation and set-up - something virtually all of us can do ourselves, but none of us want to do as loading software is stressful.

So, will it stay the way it is today? Well, it is doubtful it will stay exactly the way it is today, but it may not change much at all. So, there you have them - the three scenarios. Each one is valid and possible but with vastly different outcomes and benefits. But, what's interesting is that there are even more possibilities. For example, some software companies and web developers would like you to believe that the future of presentations, as a whole, doesn't even involve the projector but centers around the Internet and our ability to communicate via web-based presentations (i.e. NetShow and ConferTech). Well, this one is harder for me to believe (right now at least) as the human-touch is, and always will be strong, and a bond that's hard to break. But, I see kids everyday that interact better with computers and computerized gadgets better than with other kids. And, they're bright kids. Maybe their generation, dominated with a proliferation of microprocessor-based gizmos, will actually embrace these products as the solution to avoiding business travel and being in two places at one time. Who knows, but I hope I'm around to see how it all shakes out. Gary Kayye is Principal of Kayye Consulting a firm that specializes in providing marketing consulting, telephony integration and training development to the professional audiovisual industry. He spent 12 years at Extron and AMX as VP of Sales and Marketing before founding his own firm. He can be reached at www.kayye.com or via e-mail at gkayye@kayye.com. He is also the volunteer chairman of the PETC. He also founded KNews.

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Gary Kayye is Principal of Kayye Consulting, a firm that specializes in providing marketing consulting, telephony integration and training development to the professional audiovisual industry. He spent 12 years at Extron and AMX as VP of Sales and Marketing before founding his own firm. He can be reached at www.kayye.com or via e-mail at gkayye@kayye.com. He is also the volunteer chairman of the PETC. He also founded KNews.